scenario-planning

Name: scenario-planning
Author: alirezarezvani

Shell invented modern scenario planning in the 1970s after the oil crisis. Core insight: **scenarios are not forecasts — they're tools for thinking.**

scenario planning

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# Scenario Planning Reference

## Shell's Scenario Planning Methodology

Shell invented modern scenario planning in the 1970s after the oil crisis. Core insight: **scenarios are not forecasts — they're tools for thinking.**

### Shell's Principles (adapted for startups)
1. **Scenarios are mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive** — they cover the space of possibilities without overlapping
2. **2x2 matrix** — pick 2 critical uncertainties (not risks — uncertainties); cross them to get 4 scena

How to Use

Recommended: Install to project (local)

mkdir -p .claude/skills
curl -o .claude/skills/scenario-planning.md \
  https://raw.githubusercontent.com/alirezarezvani/claude-skills/main/c-level-advisor/scenario-war-room/references/scenario-planning.md

Skill is scoped to this project only. Add .claude/skills/ to your .gitignoreif you don't want to commit it.

Alternative: Clone full repo

git clone https://github.com/alirezarezvani/claude-skills

Then reference at c-level-advisor/scenario-war-room/references/scenario-planning.md